Global Oil Market Weekly Highlights

The breakdown of the Jun. 17 US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) has disrupted global oil, refined product, and LNG markets.

Crude oil futures posted their most volatile and bullish week in months as the collapse of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and escalating military confrontations over the Strait of Hormuz forced traders to rapidly reprice geopolitical risk.

For the week of Jul. 20–24, crude futures face a defining moment as U.S.-Iran military confrontation over the Strait of Hormuz intensifies.

Extreme structural constraints in global refining have inverted the traditional crude-to-product pricing relationship, allowing middle distillate scarcity to drive upstream crude valuations.

U.S. crude production reached an all-time high of 13.6 MM b/d in 2025—40% above Russia and Saudi Arabia—even as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 316.5 MM bbl, its lowest since Apr. 1983, following a 172-MM-bbl emergency release amid the Iran conflict.

Russian crude processing has plunged to 3.91 MM b/d—the lowest since March 2005—after 50 Ukrainian drone strikes hit 24 of 34 refineries in 100 days, forcing Moscow to ban diesel exports and divert record crude volumes abroad.

The US has reimposed its naval blockade on Iranian ports after the June 18 ceasefire collapsed, disabling the tanker Belma with Hellfire missiles on Jul. 15 and redirecting two other vessels.

Iraq secured a one-year deal with Turkey to keep the Ceyhan pipeline operating, preserving more than 200K b/d of northern exports after the Hormuz closure exposed Baghdad's export vulnerability.

Asian oil importers have returned to US crude in force as the Hormuz ceasefire collapsed, with at least 11 MM bbl. of American crude sold to South Korean, Japanese, and Thai refiners on Jul. 14 alone—marking a sharp reversal after weeks of quiet spot trading.

The country slashed crude imports by 41.3% in Jun. to 7.12 MM b/d—the lowest since Oct. 2016—drawing down an estimated 1.2–1.5 B barrel stockpile amassed before the Iran war, effectively capping global oil prices and transforming Beijing from a price taker into a price maker.