Markets

A sudden escalation in Middle Eastern hostilities has fractured the fragile US-Iran interim peace framework established on Jun. 18, and has severely clouded the outlook for the global oil market.

Crude oil futures experienced wild price swings this week as the market shifted rapidly from global oversupply concerns to intense geopolitical anxieties.

The upcoming trading week (July 13 – July 17, 2026) marks a critical transition period for global crude oil futures.

Global refining margins for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel have surged to historic levels in July 2026, driven by geopolitical conflicts, capacity destruction, export restrictions, and depleted inventories.

In April, US petroleum exports reached an all-time monthly high of 13.6 MM b/d, driven by security disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz during the US-Iran conflict.

Driven by US tariffs, trade uncertainty, and a geopolitical push to diversify beyond American markets, Canada is executing its most ambitious infrastructure pivot in decades.

Its oil sector is undergoing a profound transformation following the US-backed ouster of President Nicolás Maduro in Jan. this year.

There is a deeply fractured European energy strategy upended by Middle Eastern war supply shocks, leadership shifts, and staggering net-zero costs.

Capitalizing on its May 1, 2026, withdrawal from OPEC, the United Arab Emirates achieved an all-time production high of 4.1 MM b/d in Jun.

Since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict on Feb. 28, Asian refiners have been forced to radically alter their crude import strategies to survive severe regional supply disruptions.