Markets

Early April 2025 witnessed a dramatic and rapid descent in crude oil prices, plummeting to levels not seen in four years.

A monthly Reuters poll in Mar. indicated that analysts anticipate capped oil price increases for the remainder of 2025.

Barclays has significantly reduced its Brent Crude price forecast for 2025 to $74/b, a $9 decrease from its previous prediction, citing a 510K b/d drop in expected demand growth due to economic uncertainties.

President Trump's fluctuating tariff policies, particularly those affecting trade with Mexico and Canada, have created significant uncertainty and concern within the energy industry

OPEC has maintained its oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, anticipating the global economy will adapt to volatile trade policies.

Analysts and economists predict oil prices will remain subdued in 2025, primarily due to sufficient oil supply and spare capacity within OPEC+.

Trafigura identifies US foreign policy concerning Iran as a significant upward risk for crude prices, particularly amidst a well-supplied market.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts a decline in Brent crude oil prices, averaging $74/b in 2025 and $66/b in 2026, down from $80/b in 2024.

The announcement of new US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China has stirred volatility in the oil market, but Goldman Sachs forecasts a limited short-term impact on oil prices.

The global oil market remains under a delicate balance of forces, with fundamental supply and demand factors battling against financial market positioning.