Markets

There are challenges and opportunities for European refiners amid upcoming refinery closures and the energy transition with consideration of Trump's second-term impacts.

The oil futures market saw mixed movements during the final week of Dec., influenced by a combination of geopolitical tensions, economic data, and supply concerns. 

Demand forecasts for 2025 have also been revised downward by several agencies, including OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA).

In 2024, US oil production reached a record high, surpassing the previous year’s achievement of 12.9MM b/d.

In Nov., India reduced its imports of Russian crude oil, bringing the total down by 13% to 1.52MM b/d, compared to the previous month.

The following are key trends of the global oil market to watch in the coming year.

Oil prices were highly volatile this week, driven by economic data, geopolitical risks, and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions.

Oil prices for 2025 are projected to remain moderate, influenced by a combination of weaker demand growth, supply surpluses, and geopolitical uncertainties.

President-elect Donald Trump has issued a stark warning to the European Union (EU) to increase its imports of US oil and gas, threatening to impose tariffs on EU exports to the US if the EU fails to comply.

The inclusion of US WTI in the Dated crude benchmark has successfully added liquidity and transparency to the market, helping revive participation from long-absent market players and encouraging new entrants.