Markets

Global energy markets are grappling with extreme volatility as oil prices collapse back to pre-war levels near $70/b, driven by a tentative 60-day US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that has drastically cooled fears of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure.

Crude oil futures experienced significant volatility, ultimately posting a sharp weekly decline as fears of a severe global supply glut overshadowed immediate geopolitical risks.

Heading into the coming week, the narrative anchoring global crude oil markets has undergone a fundamental structural shift, transitioning from localized geopolitical anxiety to deep concern over a looming supply surplus.

Following an interim peace agreement between the US and Iran on Jun. 17, 2026, the rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a sharp decline in global crude prices.

As the nation marks its 250th anniversary, the US energy landscape is experiencing an intense tightening of domestic stockpiles, mitigated only by continuous emergency interventions.

In Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney disrupted Alberta’s immediate West Coast pipeline ambitions by confirming that Ottawa will maintain the federal ban on oil tankers along British Columbia's (BC) North Coast.

Data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea (CAS) released on Jul. 2 reveals that Russian seaborne crude exports climbed to 4.414 MM b/d in Jun., marking a 9% increase on the month and a 28% surge year-over-year.

A fragile interim peace agreement and 60-day negotiation framework between Iran and the US has triggered a structural supply correction across the Persian Gulf energy corridor.

The recent US-Iran conflict and temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz have fundamentally altered crude procurement strategies across Asia's largest refining economies.

Global refining is undergoing a massive structural overhaul as strict decarbonization laws, such as Europe’s RefuelEU mandate (scaling from 2% SAF in 2025 to 70% by 2050), clash with fragmented supply chains.