Markets

The crude oil futures market saw significant volatility in the week just passed, driven by geopolitical shifts and persistent oversupply concerns.

The near-future outlook for oil prices is dominated by a fierce

The latest US sanctions targeting top Russian oil producers, Lukoil and Rosneft, have successfully forced a rapid, global shift in crude sourcing.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts a major reversal in Alaska’s decades-long crude oil production decline, predicting a 13% increase (approximately 55K b/d) in 2026.

The price of Russia's flagship Urals crude oil at the Black Sea recently plunged to $36.61/b, marking its lowest level in nearly three years.

Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports and production soared in Sept. as the market began its pivot away from sanctioned Russian barrels.

The UN COP (Conference of the Parties) 30 climate summit in Belem, Brazil, concluded without an agreement on a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels, a key proposal that dominated political discussions.

The world’s top energy agencies and companies have significantly revised their long-term oil demand forecasts in Nov. 2025, suggesting the energy transition has stalled and fossil fuels will maintain dominance for decades.

The week of Nov. 10 saw extreme price volatility in crude oil futures, dominated by two major forces: a fundamental market shift confirmed by OPEC's acknowledgment of a supply surplus, and a sharp increase in geopolitical risk due to intensifying US sanctions on Russian energy companies and subsequent attacks on Russian oil infrastructure.

The global oil market is now locked in a high-stakes conflict, defined by the OPEC+ cartel deliberately shifting its strategy from prioritizing price stabilization to a robust market share defense against the rapid and record-breaking growth of US shale production.