Markets

While recent optimistic inflation data has slightly buoyed oil prices, with the US Federal Reserve indicating one rate cut before the end of this year and additional cuts in 2025 and 2026, a mix of global events is likely to sway crude prices in the coming weeks.

Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin recently highlighted how the increased spare production capacity in Western and Middle Eastern companies is neutralizing the efforts of OPEC+ to stabilize oil prices.

Re-exports of Canadian heavy crude from the Gulf Coast rebounded in April, averaging 196K b/d, up by 42K b/d from March but down by 98K b/d compared to the previous year.

OPEC+ opted for a cautious approach at their recent meeting, extending existing production cuts of 3.6MM b/d until the end of 2025.

OPEC+'s decision to allow some members to begin unwinding production cuts beginning in Oct. as well as mixed views on when the US Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates pressured futures prices.

Following OPEC+'s announcement signaling a shift in strategy towards increasing production from Q4 2024, oil futures prices dipped to their lowest in four months.

Saudi Arabia has decided to lower its official selling price (OSP) for its flagship Arab Light crude oil for deliveries to Asia by $0.50/b from Jun. setting the new premium at $2.40 over the Dubai/Oman benchmark.

In May, Venezuela's oil exports saw a significant increase of 30% from the previous month, as state oil company PDVSA's clients expedited cargo shipments before the reinstatement of US sanctions.

Russian crude exports fell to a six-month low of 3.52MM b/d in May.