Markets

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts a decline in Brent crude oil prices, averaging $74/b in 2025 and $66/b in 2026, down from $80/b in 2024.

The announcement of new US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China has stirred volatility in the oil market, but Goldman Sachs forecasts a limited short-term impact on oil prices.

The global oil market remains under a delicate balance of forces, with fundamental supply and demand factors battling against financial market positioning.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has slightly revised its global refinery throughput forecast upward, now projecting 83.4MM b/d in 2025, compared to its previous estimate of 83.3MM b/d.

Diverging Oil Price Forecasts: EIA, Banks, and Analysts Weigh in on 2025 and Beyond

The global oil market in 2025 is poised to see a surplus, driven by increasing non-OPEC+ supply and modest demand growth.

Demand forecasts for 2025 have also been revised downward by several agencies, including OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Oil prices for 2025 are projected to remain moderate, influenced by a combination of weaker demand growth, supply surpluses, and geopolitical uncertainties.

The inclusion of US WTI in the Dated crude benchmark has successfully added liquidity and transparency to the market, helping revive participation from long-absent market players and encouraging new entrants.

Recent political developments in Syria, despite its minimal oil output, could significantly affect global crude markets due to its strategic location and alliances with Russia and Iran.